Yesterday was busy monitoring the Cyclone Phyan which hoodwinked the administration of Mumbai. Though different weather agencies have given confusing news about the time and location of actual landfall, my take on this is as below :
The cyclone which had gathered force, by around 0800 IST of 11th developing an eye at the centre was in line for a Mumbai landing anytime between 1600 hrs to 2000 hrs. This was what made the IMD press the panic button. But by the time wheels of the administration turned and a shutdown of the city was announced around 1200 hrs, the scenario had completely changed. The cyclone just collapsed in a layman's language. It took a near easterly turn and weakened rapidly to a timid form. The crossing took place place north of Dapoli in Ratnagiri / Sindudurg area. Ratnagiri bore the brunt in quick time around 1130 to 1300 hrs. The much weakened system then rapidly covered area and bisected the Mumbai-Pune Ghats around 1400 hrs (substantiated by heavy winds during a 30 minute span felt by me at Panvel, while Mumbai was peaceful by that time). By 1500 hrs everything was back to normal for Konkan area. Therefore I seriously doubt any crossing at Alibag or the time given as between 1530 to 1630 hrs crossing as total Mumbai area had become calm by the time people all reached back the safety of their homes !!
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